Beirut: Hezbollah, the Iran-backed group in Lebanon that once wielded significant influence from Iraq to the Mediterranean, exists today only as a shadow of its former self. As a part of the Iranian-backed Axis of Resistance, the non-state militia that also operates as a political party in Lebanon has suffered major blows recently in the form of high-profile assassinations, loss of military assets, and limited access to resources.
According to TRTworld.com, despite the ceasefire, Israel has continued air strikes and ground incursions into southern Lebanon, claiming it is only targeting Hezbollah's military infrastructure. The war has resulted in over 4,000 deaths and displaced nearly 1.4 million people in Lebanon, according to Lebanon's Health Ministry. Israel also killed Hassan Nasrallah, who led Hezbollah for three decades, besides a number of key commanders in non-stop aerial strikes inside Lebanese territories.
Crushed by a six-year-long economic crisis, the current Lebanese government is the first in the country's history to show genuine seriousness about disarming Hezbollah. Early this month, the US government asked the Lebanese government to fully disarm Hezbollah in exchange for Israel's withdrawal from southern parts of Lebanon. The response from Lebanese President Joseph Aoun was so positive that it left Thomas Barrack, the envoy of US President Trump, unbelievably satisfied. Backed by Saudi Arabia, the US proposal calls for the full disarmament of Hezbollah within four months, thus paving the way for US aid and foreign investment into the crisis-ridden nation of 5.7 million people.
Iran has long waged a shadow war against Israel through regional actors such as Lebanon-based Hezbollah and Yemen-based Houthis. But Iran's declining regional clout, particularly after its 12-day conflict with Israel in 2025, has weakened Hezbollah to a large extent. While Iran's ties with Hezbollah remain intact, analysts say Tehran's focus on protecting its national security within its borders has left the Lebanese group more exposed to Israeli hostilities. Analysts say Iran's relative decline and its lack of direct intervention to protect Hezbollah during the 2024 war is a key reason why Hezbollah is now more open to disarmament talks.
Hezbollah's role as a regional player acting on behalf of Tehran took a major blow when a new government came to power in Syria, Lebanon's neighbouring country that gives Beirut land access to Iraq and Iran, after opposition groups defeated the Assad regime in December 2024. Analysts say the new Syrian government has a different approach towards its neighbors than its predecessor, as President Ahmed al Sharaa is unlikely to do Iran's bidding in the region. Sharaa and his Lebanese counterpart, Joseph Aoun, agreed in February to coordinate efforts to maintain security along the border following rounds of clashes, a move that cut off Iran's access to Hezbollah.
Lebanon's central bank recently signed an agreement with a US risk management advisory firm to combat illegal activities and fraud - a move aimed at preventing Hezbollah from using the Lebanese financial system to re-establish itself after recent setbacks. The agreement is part of Banque du Liban's broader effort to remove Beirut from the grey list of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), the international policy-making and standard-setting body dedicated to combating money laundering and terrorist financing. The US Department of the Treasury has already imposed sanctions on Hezbollah-related financial institutions on the pretext that the Iran-backed group uses these banks as a cover to manage "financial activities and gain access to the international financial system." A Lebanese official told Reuters news agency the Lebanese central bank's move reflected US pressure on Beirut to take action against Hezbollah's financial wing. Meanwhile, the US has promised economic aid to the Lebanese government if it ful ly disarms Hezbollah.