New York: France and Saudi Arabia on Monday are set to join a raft of nations in officially recognising the state of Palestine amid a renewed push for a two-state solution. But some analysts warn the effort could backfire, entrenching unequal rights for Palestinians living under Israeli control and possibly prompting Israel to annex parts of the West Bank. France and Saudi Arabia hope to use this year's gathering of world leaders at the United Nations General Assembly, and the increasingly horrific war in the Gaza Strip, to inject new urgency into the quest for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
According to France24.com, these efforts include a new road map for eventual Palestinian statehood in territories Israel seized in the 1967 Mideast war, and moves by several Western countries to join a global majority in recognising such a state before it has been established. Britain, Canada, and Australia formally recognised a Palestinian state on Sunday, joining nearly 150 countries that have already done so, with France and Saudi Arabia to follow suit. The creation of a Palestinian state in East Jerusalem, the West Bank, and Gaza has long been seen internationally as the only way to resolve the conflict, which began more than a century before Hamas's October 7, 2023, attack sparked the ongoing war in Gaza.
Proponents argue that this solution would allow Israel to exist as a democracy with a Jewish majority, while the alternative would perpetuate a status quo where Jewish Israelis have full rights, and Palestinians live under varying degrees of Israeli control. Major rights groups argue this situation amounts to apartheid. UN Secretary-General António Guterres emphasized that without a two-state solution, there will be no peace in the Middle East, asserting that the one-state solution is intolerable.
The United States and Israel, however, argue that the international push for a Palestinian state rewards Hamas and complicates efforts to halt the war and secure the return of hostages. Peace talks, which began in the early 1990s, have repeatedly faltered amid violence and the expansion of Israeli settlements, with no substantive negotiations held since Netanyahu's return to office in 2009. Israel annexed East Jerusalem, considers it part of its capital, and has long encouraged Jewish settlement growth in and around Palestinian neighborhoods.
The West Bank is home to over 500,000 settlers with Israeli citizenship and about 3 million Palestinians living under Israeli military rule, with the Palestinian Authority exercising limited autonomy. Israel's retaliatory offensive in Gaza has resulted in significant casualties and destruction, with large portions of the population displaced and areas pushed into famine. A new offensive threatens to devastate Gaza City further.
Netanyahu's government and most of Israel's political class have been opposed to Palestinian statehood even before the war. The Trump administration showed no interest in reviving peace talks, instead advocating for the relocation of Gaza's population to other countries, a plan critics equate to ethnic cleansing.
France and Saudi Arabia's phased plan aims to end the conflict by establishing a demilitarized state governed by the Palestinian Authority. The plan calls for an immediate end to the war in Gaza, the return of hostages, and complete Israeli withdrawal. Hamas would hand power to a politically independent committee under the Palestinian Authority and lay down its arms. The international community would help the Palestinian Authority rebuild Gaza and govern the territories, potentially with foreign peacekeepers.
The 193-member world body approved a nonbinding resolution endorsing the "New York Declaration" earlier this month. However, Gaza ceasefire talks have faced disruptions, and Israel unilaterally ended a previous ceasefire in March. Israel argues that creating a Palestinian state would allow Hamas to carry out further attacks, though Hamas has indicated acceptance of a state on the 1967 lines.
Netanyahu portrays international recognition of Palestinian statehood as an attack on Israel, warning against unilateral actions. His coalition partners have long desired to annex large parts of the West Bank, complicating the establishment of a viable Palestinian state. The US has not publicly taken a position, but discussions continue. The United Arab Emirates has called annexation a red line but has not specified the impact on the 2020 Abraham Accords.
The French-Saudi plan sidesteps contentious issues like final borders and the status of Jerusalem. It relies heavily on the Palestinian Authority, criticized by many Palestinians. The plan calls for elections within a year, but President Mahmoud Abbas has delayed previous votes due to potential electoral losses. Hamas, which won the last national elections in 2006, would be excluded unless it disarms and recognizes Israel.
The plan risks becoming another in a series of unfulfilled Middle East accords, leaving Israel in control of the land and ruling millions of disenfranchised Palestinians.